The 2024 potato harvest in the UK is shaping up to be one of the most challenging in recent memory, driven by severe weather disruptions, shrinking planting areas, and rising production costs. With storms disrupting the lifting process and a significant reduction in the area planted, the UK’s potato crop is set to be one of the smallest on record. In this article, we will analyze the current state of the potato market, compare it to trends over the last five years, and make predictions about the future.
Current State of the 2024 Potato Harvest
Weather and Harvesting Challenges
The 2024 harvest has been severely affected by two major storms — Agnes and Babet — which hit the UK in September and October. These storms brought heavy rainfall, resulting in waterlogged fields and disrupted harvesting operations. By mid-October, around 85% of seed potatoes had been lifted, but the remaining crops are at risk of rotting due to wet conditions. Growers in heavier soils, such as those in the Vale of York, have struggled significantly, with some fields still inaccessible due to standing water (News from AA Farmer).
As a result, potato yields are lower than expected. The average yield for 2024 is estimated at 40 tonnes per hectare, which is lower than the five-year average of 44.2 tonnes per hectare (Farmers Weekly).
Area Planted and Production Decline
The area planted with potatoes in 2024 has seen a notable decline compared to previous years. In 2023, the total area planted was approximately 103,500 hectares, a 10-15% reduction compared to 2022. This reduction has been attributed to both economic pressures and adverse weather during the planting season. As a result, the total potato production for 2024 is expected to be around 4.14 million tonnes, which would make it one of the smallest UK potato crops in recent history (Farmers Weekly).
Table 1: UK Potato Production (2019-2024)
| Year | Area Planted (ha) | Average Yield (t/ha) | Total Production (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 118,000 | 45.5 | 5.37 |
| 2020 | 113,000 | 43.2 | 4.88 |
| 2021 | 108,500 | 44.6 | 4.84 |
| 2022 | 103,500 | 44.2 | 4.57 |
| 2023 | 103,500 | 44.0 | 4.54 |
| 2024 (est) | 90,000 - 95,000 | 40.0 | 4.14 |
Price Trends in 2024
Potato prices have risen significantly due to the reduced supply. The price of free-buy packing potatoes has increased to £250-£400 per tonne, compared to a top price of £250 per tonne in 2023 (Farmers Weekly)(News from AA Farmer). This sharp increase is driven by tight supply conditions, as well as strong market demand from both domestic and international buyers.
Processing potatoes, used for products such as frozen fries, are also seeing strong demand, with prices rising similarly. The increase in imports of frozen potato products has also put pressure on local growers, with the UK importing 825,000 tonnes of frozen potato products in the year to August 2023 — a 13% increase from the previous year. This trend is likely to continue as UK production struggles to meet domestic demand (Farmers Weekly.
Table 2: Potato Prices (2019-2024)
| Year | Free-Buy Packing Price (£/t) | Processing Price (£/t) | Imports of Frozen Products (tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 150-200 | 170-220 | 700,000 |
| 2020 | 180-240 | 200-250 | 720,000 |
| 2021 | 210-250 | 220-260 | 750,000 |
| 2022 | 220-250 | 230-280 | 825,000 |
| 2023 | 250-400 | 250-350 | 825,000 |
| 2024 (est) | 250-400 | 300-400 | 850,000 (forecast) |
Comparison with the Last Five Years
The potato industry has been through considerable upheaval over the last five years. Key trends include:
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Weather Volatility: Unpredictable weather has been a recurring theme, with both droughts and excessive rainfall affecting yields and quality. In 2020, for example, dry conditions led to lower yields, while 2024's wet conditions have disrupted harvesting and increased risks of rot.
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Rising Input Costs: The cost of inputs such as fertilizers, energy, and labor has increased significantly. Fertilizer prices alone rose by over 30% between 2021 and 2023, squeezing profit margins (Farmers Weekly).
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Increased Imports: The UK has become increasingly reliant on imported potato products, particularly frozen fries. Imports have increased by 13% over the last two years, with most coming from Belgium and the Netherlands (Farmers Weekly).
Future Outlook and Predictions
Looking ahead, the UK potato industry faces several key challenges:
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Supply Shortages: The reduced planting area and lower yields in 2024 will likely lead to continued tight supply conditions through the end of the year. This could drive further price increases, particularly for fresh market potatoes.
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Imports Filling the Gap: As domestic production struggles to meet demand, the UK is expected to import even more frozen potato products. This trend will likely continue into 2025, with some forecasts suggesting that frozen product imports could exceed 850,000 tonnes in the next year (Farmers Weekly).
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Long-Term Adjustments: The high prices in 2024 may tempt some growers to increase their planted area for the 2025 season. However, given the ongoing volatility in weather and input costs, many farmers may remain cautious. Additionally, the pressure on seed potato availability—particularly in the face of post-Brexit export restrictions — could limit planting for 2025.
Table 3: UK Potato Production Forecast (2024-2025)
| Year | Planted Area (ha) | Average Yield (t/ha) | Total Production (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 90,000 - 95,000 | 40.0 | 4.14 |
| 2025 (est) | 95,000 - 100,000 | 41.5 | 4.5 |
Conclusion
The 2024 UK potato harvest is one of the most challenging in recent years, with reduced yields, disrupted harvesting, and rising prices. The smaller planting area and ongoing weather volatility have created supply shortages that are driving up prices across the board. While imports are helping to fill the gap, domestic growers face significant pressures that could impact the industry’s long-term stability. Going forward, farmers will need to carefully balance planting decisions with the realities of weather unpredictability, rising costs, and market demand.